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Price and Probability (PAP)
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SPECIAL OFFER: PAP Library/Big-Day Subscription 2014-15 only $34.95!

"Big Day" Subscription $34.95

(Belmont Stakes Day PAP Sheet ONLY available with purchase!!)
ALL SUBCRIPTIONS RUN THROUGH THE END OF 2015!! NO DAYS WILL BE ADDED!!
(The "Big Day" PAP Sheets will be retired after the 2015 Breeders' Cup)
Subscribers:
Did you receive your Belmont Stakes Day sheet, if you didn't, please
e-mail here (we will check our e-mail and other lists to make sure you're supposed to get it)!

Click the appropriate link above.
FREE PAP Sheet for FRIDAY (June 6) at Belmont Park!
SATURDAY's BELMONT STAKES PAP Sheet is now available and will be sent upon receipt of purchase!!

"Big Day" Subscription $34.95

The History Of PAP
Few know the actual history of speed-figure handicapping. Ray has pieced this together through his research, work, and direct conversations with some of the principals. Other sources may have additional/different information:

The End Of The Golden Age Of Handicapping Books
With no gurus to guide him after 1982, Ray continued along his own path, which included five profitable years making his own figures with the Beyer-Kovitz method, a detour into
PowerBase in 1992, after the Beyer Armageddon made its namesake's method no longer profitable as a standalone tool. PowerBase proved extremely promising, and often lucrative, until its demise in January, 2007, when Black Wednesday saw Neteller cutting off American money from sports wagering account, followed by Black Monday, when bookmaking legend Pinnacle Sports exited Ray's native market, leaving Ray and his audience without a (quasi-legal) wagering outlet.

The decade Ray spent developing PowerBase was not at all wasted, and made his forced return to horseplaying (the only legal option, where getting paid was ensured) a successful one. Using class-handicapping theory he had deeveloped for PowerBase, he began injecting class-handicapping principles into the Beyer figures, "bumping" them based on certain class indicators. He also developed his odds conversion equation, based on the bookies' method of converting pointspreads into moneylines. Ray realized that time has a fixed odds value, i.e., that an X edge in power rating converted to X and Y odds for the two (or more) horses involved. With the light at the end of the rating tunnel in sight, Ray set out to perfect both his rating methodology and conversion equation. If successful, he would reduce the entire horseplaying equation to a simple matter of finding the correct power rating.

The Decision To Publish PAP
PAP has consistently shown a profitable ROI if one wagers "cold" in each pool (wps and exotics), but this requires a lot of work, and a bankroll so large that it would be better off invested in the stock market, a positive-expectation, tax-advantaged game which requires far less analytical work, and in which one can land high-paying jobs or advanced degrees.

As the PAP rating method became increasingly precise, Ray began questioning the relevance of figures, especially with the "low-hanging fruit" that Beyer so easily picked clean no longer in existence. The crowd against which Beyer was betting was using a primitive, inaccurate tool, while PAP, relative to Beyer-Kovitz, was at best a slightly better mousetrap. Profitability in the modern horseracing game requires the use of a lot more than a good set of numbers, however vital they may be as basic information.

Ray has therefore elected to publish the 2011 version of his rating methodoloogy, after which both his ratings and value lies employ the use of overrides which are beyond the scope of the rating method, now referred to by Ray as time PAP. Please note that our free PAP sheets contain value lines which were made with both the time PAP rating, and numerous overrides which Ray has implemented since PAP II was written. PAP II is still useful both for making your own tikme PAP ratings, such as for races taken off the turf (which our sheets do not cover), and for making ratings for other tracks.

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SPECIAL OFFER: Get FREE Big-Day PAP Sheets for 2014-15 with your purchase of the PAP Library!

Click Here To Order The PAP Library ($34.95)

"Big Day" Subscription $34.95

(Belmont Stakes Day PAP Sheet ONLY available with purchase!!)
ALL SUBCRIPTIONS RUN THROUGH THE END OF 2015!! NO DAYS WILL BE ADDED!!
(The "Big Day" PAP Sheets will be retired after the 2015 Breeders' Cup)
SATURDAY's BELMONT STAKES PAP Sheet is now available and will be sent upon receipt of purchase!!
Subscribers: Did you receive your Belmont Stakes Day sheet, if you didn't, please e-mail here (we will check our e-mail and other lists to make sure you're supposed to get it)!

The PAP Library
Ray has authored several horseplaying books over the years, all of which are now available as The PAP Library, for a comprehensive approach to handicapping and betting. As noted above, all purchases of the PAP Library will include free big-day PAP sheets through the end of 2015, a $49.90 value!!

The PAP Library includes:

With The PAP Library, you'll be well-armed for the racetrack war, where life-changing financial events in both directions occur perpetually. If you ORDER NOW! -- Bots are standing by! -- you'll get free "big day" PAP sheets (all three Triple Crown cards, plus the Travers and Breeders' Cup cards), absolutely free!

Click Here To Order The PAP Library ($34.95)

"Big Day" Subscription $34.95

(Belmont Stakes Day PAP Sheet ONLY available with purchase!!)
ALL SUBCRIPTIONS RUN THROUGH THE END OF 2015!! NO DAYS WILL BE ADDED!!
(The "Big Day" PAP Sheets will be retired after the 2015 Breeders' Cup)
SATURDAY's BELMONT STAKES PAP Sheet is now available and will be sent upon receipt of purchase!!

Top Of Page

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Click Here To Order The PAP Library/Subscription Special! ($34.95)
(Belmont Stakes Day PAP Sheet ONLY available with purchase!!)

PAP Sheets
We offer free NYRA PAP sheets for every racing day at Aqueduct, Belmont, and Saratoga.

Big-Day Subscriptions are $34.95 a year, but we are currently offering a special that incldues all Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Belmont Statkes, Travers, and both days Breeders' Cup cards gthrough 2015 (a $49.90 value!) with purchase of the PAP Library
(Belmont Day ONLY available with subscription!!)
ALL SUBCRIPTIONS RUN THROUGH THE END OF 2015!! NO DAYS WILL BE ADDED!!
(The "Big Day" PAP Sheets will be retired after the 2015 Breeders' Cup)
SATURDAY's BELMONT STAKES PAP Sheet is now available and will be sent upon receipt of purchase!!

Click Here To Order The PAP Library/Subscription Special! ($34.95)

"Big Day" Subscription $34.95

(Belmont Stakes Day PAP Sheet ONLY available with purchase!!)
ALL SUBCRIPTIONS RUN THROUGH THE END OF 2015!! NO DAYS WILL BE ADDED!!
(The "Big Day" PAP Sheets will be retired after the 2015 Breeders' Cup)
SATURDAY's BELMONT STAKES PAP Sheet is now available and will be sent upon receipt of purchase!!

Top Of Page