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Price and Probability
We're Documented by the IRS
PAP Sheet for SUNDAY (March 9) at Aqueduct!
A Speed Figure is NOT A Power Rating!!
In The Winning Horseplayer, Andrew Bewyer compared his speed-figure method to the Daily Racing Form's speed-rating/track-variant combination. He said, more or less, that his figures were:
"the way, the truth, and the light.....I viewed the Form's speed-rating/track-variant the way Picasso might have viewed paint-by-numbers kits."
Beyer's arrogance was justified,
but to expect any informational
advantage to survive, intact, for three decades,
is a bit much. The Beyer figures lost most of their standalone
profitability in 1992, when they became part and parcel of the
DRF past-performances. While they are still considered useful,
the days of being able to simply make one's own speed-figures,
and using them, and them alone, to win, are long gone. Enter PAP,
the logical evolution to speed-figures, be they Beyer's,
Ragozin's, Brown's, or others.
How Fast Will Your Horse Run Today?
Beyer himself will tell you that his speed-figures can only tell you how fast a horse ran in the past, not how fast it will run today. This is because speed-figures ae an incomplete performance rating. Just as the speed-figure adjusts a raw time rating to account for surface, a performance rating adjusts the speed-figure to account for everything else. These figures are then combined, using Ray's proprietary method, into a singular power rating, a singular measure of a horse's ability, As any PAP sheet will show, the PAP rating is a prerace, projected speed-figure that does exactly what Beyer said could not be done with his figures, i.e., predict how a horse will run today. The six years Ray spent (1986-1992) making his own speed-figures with the Beyer-Kovitz method provide an excellent foundation for his attackign the task of projecting a figure before, not after, a horse has run its race.
Value: The PAP Conversion Equation
the question is simple:
What is the odds value of one Beyer-Kovitz point?
Ray's answer to this question, which has evolved over the past decade, and which Ray now consideres mature, is what allows him to take a set of prerace speed-figure projections (PAP ratings), and convert them into a highly accurate, and bettable, morning line for each horse.
The result is either:
A comprehensive vqalue handicapping approach for the serious player (Price And Probability, the "PAP book");
A turnkey solution for the recreational player (the PAP sheets). Even those who choose to use the sheets can still do a great deal of brainwork, since the "value zone" for PAP is large, offering multiple strategic options.
Price And Probability covers all areas of PAP, includes a complete (odds) conversion equation chart, and a way for you to make your own PAP-style ratings.
While Ray has no doubt that some future handicapping author will eventually surpass his method for profitability, this doesn't appear likely to occur anytime soon.
Saturday, March 5, 2011:
"Hey there. How's it going?
I just happened onto your PAP sheets while on the Parx Racing home page. They seem very very interesting. How long have you guys been posting these sheets? I've never noticed them before.
I don't get to the track all that much now because of work, but when I do go, I frequent Philadelphia Park. I was checking your sheets for Parx on sunday, and again today. I was very impressed. I love just using the 'value' category. 'Your' morning lines of what the horse should be are right on!
Tuesday, March 9, 2011:
I was at work today, but I'm checking out the results right now. WOW... a $3500 Pick 3!!! Now that's what i'm talkin' about!!! :)
Glad to see a great hit. Thanks again for posting.... Continued success at the windows and with the site!
Both by John